Case Study | D&B Failure Score
Find out how the D&B Failure Score accurately predicted the insolvency and eventual administration of Hostmore (TGI Fridays) through predictive analytics.
Hostmore: Who Are They?
Hostmore, which runs the UK franchise for popular restaurant chain TGI Fridays, appointed administrators in September 2024 and delisted its ordinary shares after struggling to find a "lasting solution" to save the business amid heavy losses and mounting debts.
The hospitality company had already tried to balance its books by deep cost-cutting, pausing its expansion programme, management changes, and selling a number of outlets.
But the company revealed that it was not expecting to “recover any meaningful value” from the sale of stores, which is likely to amount to less than it owes to creditors and banks.
The following case study demonstrates how the D&B Failure Score accurately predicted the declining financial situation and eventual administration of Hostmore plc, months before official notifications.
Predicting financial stress
Case study – Hostmore PLC (DUNS 22-800-2488)
How does the D&B® Failure Score work?
The D&B Failure Score predicts the likelihood that an organisation will obtain legal relief from its creditors or cease operations over the next 12-month period.
The D&B Failure Score is a relative measure of risk, whereby 1 represents organisations that have the highest probability of failure and 100 – the lowest.
It shows how an organisations risk of failure compares to other organisations within a country.
How We Can Help
D&B collects information from tens of thousands of sources globally. Our predictive risk scores use demographics, corporate linkage, principals, financial, trade experiences and public detrimental information to predict how an organisation is likely to behave in the future.
Utilising the insight provided by D&B’s Predictive Indicators helps customers to quickly identify the organisations that are likely to fail or pay late, helping to drive growth, mitigate risk and increase profitability.
Our data and predictive indicators provide our customers with accurate and timely insight into an organisation may be heading for failure. D&B's monitoring services can be used to identify key changes to an organisation, allowing our customers to take appropriate and timely action.
Predictive Indicators can be adjusted by authorised experts to reflect non statistical/catastrophic events. For example, news reports from trustworthy sources that indicate a material change to risk can be investigated and changes made where appropriate. We also apply expert rules (sometimes referred to as overrides) in certain situations to ensure appropriate scores.
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